Economists predict strong year for Prairies
By John Shmuel, Financial PostApril 12, 2012
Home construction is booming in the Prairies – and Alberta, after years of tepid housing starts, is leading the charge.
The rate of residential construction, especially condominiums, has lagged behind the oil boom in Alberta in the past few years.
But blockbuster housing starts in March – they jumped 72 per cent year over year – hint that residential construction is getting hot again.
The data, released by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., showed starts grew nationally by five per cent, to 215,600, from the previous month.
Starts in Alberta jumped to their highest levels since March 2008.
Robert Kavcic, an economist at BMO Capital Markets, said the numbers show the Alberta housing market is finally picking up momentum again, something it lost following the province’s housing boom in 2006-07.
“It looks like we’re at a point now where strong economic growth and stronger population trends are starting to finally tighten that market up a little bit,” he said.
“We’re seeing more sustainable momentum in housing starts in Alberta.”
Growth in Alberta comes as the entire Prairie region benefits from an oil-fuelled economic boom, boosting housing along with it.
Data from CMHC show the Prairie provinces posted an annualized growth rate of 6.4 per cent in urban housing starts in March.
Housing starts in Alberta have grown 53 per cent in the first three months of the year, while next door neighbour Saskatchewan has registered growth of 34 per cent. Manitoba, meanwhile, saw starts jump 41 per cent.
Home construction has soared in Alberta’s biggest cities, especially the condo segment.
In Calgary, while single detached home starts increased 55 per cent year over year, multi-unit starts were up a whopping 407 per cent.
That’s good news for a market that suffered from a glut of supply following the 2008 financial crisis.
Home construction went into frenzy mode in 2006 and 2007 as the province struggled to keep up with a flood of workers from other parts of Canada who worked in the oilsands. However, after oil prices crashed in 2008, many workers were laid off or moved back home, leaving fewer buyers for the surplus of homes.
A jump in starts suggests that excess supply has been absorbed, and the province is starting to build again as it accommodates one of the fastest-growing populations in Canada. While the Prairies recorded strong growth in housing starts, it was Ontario and the blistering condo market in Toronto which added the biggest numbers in March.
Multiple-unit starts in Ontario jumped by 50.4 per cent to 85,200 on a seasonally adjusted annual basis – a number CMHC called “exceptional” but said could “not expected to be sustained.”
Leslie Preston, an economist with TD Economics, said the surge in Ontario housing starts was probably because of the warm winter weather, which led to earlier groundbreaking on projects.
She said subsequent data for housing starts in Ontario, and particularly Toronto, would likely disappoint in the second quarter.
“If you expected a certain amount of building projects over the first half of the year, that has now likely been concentrated in the first quarter,” she said. “I think the risk of disappointment in construction in the second quarter is high.”
Economists say that despite the huge jump for Ontario in March, home-construction growth will continue to be centred in the West this year, with the Prairies in particular seeing strong numbers.
“We’re anticipating continued growth in residential and real estate construction as a result of Western Canada’s economic strength,” said David Onyett-Jeffries, economist with the Royal Bank of Canada.
“Looking at the Western provinces, we’re still seeing a pick up in housing start activity in Alberta, Saskatchewan, B.C. and Manitoba.”
In contrast, Onyett-Jeffries said, housing starts in Ontario and Quebec should cool off this year.
Read more: http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/real-estate/Oil%20and%20gas%20industry%20boosts%20Alberta%20new%20home%20construction%20in%20March/6446499/story.html#ixzz1rsz3wktJ
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